Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.646379 3.619770 5.005674 7.195126 1.071055e+01 1.641213e+01 27.010726
2025-04-06 1.561217 2.427730 3.893913 6.754039 1.275375e+01 2.640654e+01 66.764707
2025-04-13 0.981693 1.673957 3.006021 6.081957 1.423393e+01 4.013648e+01 172.902571
2025-04-20 0.715710 1.330431 2.669791 6.349221 1.903245e+01 8.094615e+01 876.394095
2025-04-27 0.564160 1.137900 2.549199 7.195360 2.887098e+01 2.199099e+02 19642.411772
2025-05-04 0.458777 0.996379 2.477644 8.320477 4.655615e+01 8.314093e+02 NaN
2025-05-11 0.366680 0.844099 2.286098 8.931783 6.926209e+01 3.917858e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 0.284127 0.680321 1.955407 8.534176 8.623423e+01 1.900936e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 0.219966 0.541681 1.625777 7.713687 9.680963e+01 1.177094e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 0.186064 0.477223 1.527125 8.239919 1.493307e+02 1.227169e+10 NaN
2025-06-08 0.158795 0.422088 1.430798 8.712449 2.332776e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.139239 0.383917 1.382554 9.614201 4.209232e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.121135 0.345650 1.318977 10.479156 8.194142e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.101664 0.295563 1.164676 9.990252 1.147827e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.084868 0.249683 1.004402 9.059988 1.374586e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.075265 0.227129 0.955426 9.639212 2.976387e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.068982 0.214904 0.957089 11.212209 1.191697e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.063840 0.205304 0.969119 13.328412 1.083346e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.057964 0.190641 0.938390 14.564454 2.015022e+06 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.051138 0.169811 0.851145 13.941001 2.256326e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.044678 0.148834 0.750527 12.518333 7.741101e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.041158 0.139656 0.729451 13.552387 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.037949 0.130894 0.705678 14.494968 NaN NaN NaN